中国投资新方向 高新科技企业已崭露头角

汇通财经APP讯——


中国要实现习近平主席提出的以高科技及消费导向类公司为主的经济可能还需要几年时间，但是在公司盈利方面，这些企业的盈利比传统行业的公司要好很多。

彭博跟踪的54家中概股中，有三分之二的企业发布了其第三季度的业绩，而其第二季度的业绩都好于分析师预期。其中大约四分之三的公司是技术和消费类的上市公司。同时，MSCI中国指数跟踪的73家偏工业和金融的上市公司中，超过半数没有达到预期的收益率。

这种分歧发生是因为中国今年的国内GDP增长放缓至25年以来的最慢。今年中国政府结束了数十年之久的独生子女政策以刺激消费，并且暗示消费和服务将成为其经济增长战略的中心。中国政府采取了史无前例的措施，包括给风险资本融资的补贴，到鼓励互联网、 技术和创新作为经济增长的引擎。

盈利指导

华兴资本分析师艾拉吉(Ella Ji)表示， 这种行业盈利模式分歧可以为美国投资者提供指导。很多美国投资者减少了对中国资产的投资金额，正在考虑有更大增长潜力的投资领域。她上周在电话采访中表示，馅饼肯定是越来越小，但是如果美国投资者在中国投资，他们肯定会挑选盈利稳固的新兴行业的领头企业，而不是旧行业中的领头企业，从而抵消经济方面的不确定性。

早在8月，中国内地的股市市值蒸发超过5万亿美元，同时引发了中概股的抛售潮。彭博追踪的中国涨跌比率指标（ADR）中的科技企业股价从9月的低点反弹了36％。相比之下，MSCI中国指数从底部仅上涨了9.6％。

更大的股票池

上月，MSCI将另外14家在美国上市的中国科技公司纳入其一些最大的指数中，从而使投资者可以购买的股票池更大。这些公司中包括阿里巴巴、百度等中国企业。

这些公司的股票随着收益增长出现上涨。携程、新东方、学而思、网易是6月1日以来表现最好的五家ADR表现最好中的四家， 其收益都反弹逾20%。这些公司都报告称第三季度的收益比好于预期。

Capital LLC的创始人和投资组合经理瓦拉赫(Gabriel Wallach)表示，无论国际市场还是中国市场，不是一切情况都很好， 但是这些公司是特定行业中表现较好的公司。在瓦拉赫持有的中国企业股票中，携程的持有量最大。瓦拉赫表示不看好传统的旧行业，而是看好恢复速度更快的科技行业。

制造业衰退

中国11月的制造业情况为三年多来的最糟水平。彭博中国ADR指数中表现最差的十只股票中，汽车服务公司易车和 Autohome 公司是其中的两只。其股价至7月1日以来暴跌超过35%。这两家公司第四季度的销售一年来首次低于分析师预测，由于其毛利率下滑至2015年以来的最低水平。

市场上不尽都是好消息。一些投资者担心，中国的互联网行业还处于初始发展阶段。随着公司烧钱争取市场份额，激烈的竞争挤压了企业的利润空间。比如，对冲基金在今年第三季度减少了阿里巴巴的持有份额。

Granite Point Capital分析师谭先生(Chiheng Tan)指出，尽管在投资者眼中，中国不再遍地是商机，但是科技行业成长需要一定的时间。他表示，只有当该行业的规模变得足够大，盈利能力和毛利润才可能赶上收入增长的步伐。




China's New Growth Drivers Stand Out as Earnings Beat Estimates

While Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision of an economy dominated by high-tech and consumer-oriented companies may be years away, they’re already standing out from their old-growth counterparts when it comes to earnings.
About two-thirds of the 54 companies in Bloomberg’s index of U.S.-traded Chinese equities that have reported quarterly earnings since July exceeded analysts’ projections. Approximately three-quarters of the gauge’s members are technology and consumer-discretionary stocks. At the same time, more than half of 73 members of the MSCI China Index, which is heavily weighted with industrial and financial shares, missed earnings estimates.
That?divergence comes as China’s gross domestic product expansion is slowing to the weakest pace in 25 years. The government has ended its decades-long?one-child policy?to boost consumer spending and signaled that consumption and services will be at the center of its growth strategy.?It has taken unprecedented steps -- from subsidies to venture capital financing -- to promote Internet, technology and innovation as growth engines.
Earnings Guide
The pattern in earnings can be a helpful guide for U.S. investors, many of whom have reduced the total amount of money they have in Chinese assets and are considering areas that show greater potential for growth, according to Ella Ji, an analyst at China Renaissance Securities Inc.
“The pie is definitely getting smaller,” she said by phone last week. “But if they are investing in China, they’ll certainly pick leading companies with solid earnings related to the new rather than old industries to offset the economic uncertainties.”
Back in August, a rout in the mainland market wiped out more than $5 trillion of equity value and also triggered a selloff of Chinese shares traded in the U.S. Technology companies have driven a 36 percent rebound in the Bloomberg gauge of Chinese ADRs from this year’s low in September. That compares with a 9.6 percent gain on the MSCI China Index from its bottom.
The MSCI China gauge rose 0.2 percent at 10:32 a.m. in Hong Kong.


Bigger Pool
The MSCI Inc. last month?added?14 U.S.-traded Chinese technology companies to some of its largest indexes, allowing a broader pool of investors to buy stakes in companies such as online retailer Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. or search engine Baidu Inc.
Their share prices are moving up in step with improved earnings. Chinese online travel retailer Ctrip.com International Ltd., education service providers New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. and TAL Education Group, and online game operator Netease Inc. were among the five best-performing ADRs since July 1, each rallying more than 20 percent. All have reported better-than-expected revenue for the last quarter.?
“It’s not that everything is great in the world or in China, but these are companies that are well positioned in the right sectors,” said?Gabriel Wallach, founder and portfolio manager at North Grove Capital LLC in Boston, whose largest holdings of Chinese companies is Ctrip. “We’re not betting on the old economy,?or you want to call it industrial, to recover any time soon.”

Manufacturing Slump
China’s manufacturing conditions in November slipped to the?weakest?level in more than three years. Car service companies Bitauto Holdings Ltd. and Autohome Inc. were two of the ten worst-performing stocks on Bloomberg’s China ADR index, plunging more than 35 percent since July 1. Both announced their fourth-quarter sales guidance lower than analysts’ projections for the first time in a year, with gross margins dropping to the lowest level since 2015.
It’s not all good news. Some investors worry that China’s Internet sector is still at the stage of inception. Fierce competition is also squeezing profit margins as companies burn cash to gain market share. Hedge funds, for example,?reduced?their holdings of China’s biggest e-commerce companies during the third quarter.
“Although investors are no longer taking China with an one-size-fits-all approach, it will take a bit of time for the technology sector to grow,” said Chiheng Tan, an analyst at Granite Point Capital Inc. by phone from Boston. “Only when the scale of the industry becomes big enough, profitability and margins might catch up with pace of the revenue.”