民意调查势均力敌，希腊公投结束后政局或加倍动荡

汇通财经APP讯——

希腊决定是否接受国际债权人援助提议的全民公投将于周日(7月5日)举行。然而，无论公投结果如何，德国以及欧元区其他国家在接下来曲折的谈判中，都将面临一个政治更加动荡的希腊，即便是周日(7月5日)的投票结果为赞成更多的紧缩政策也不例外。

据德国政府官员表示，现在并没有快速解决希腊危机的办法，因为欧盟的规则使得希腊财政援助的谈判很难重新启动。此外关于希腊投票民意调查显示赞成和反对双方基本势均力敌。

而无论是德国还是欧盟的决策者层经过分析之后都认为，这次的投票只是将希腊问题延长了而不是希腊问题的终结。希腊总理齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)动员希腊选民投反对票，但是欧元区其余19国都表示投赞成票能使希腊重归改革之路。

希腊财长瓦鲁法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)接受采访时表示，我们迫切希望能够留在欧元区，周末我们有信心能得到反对紧缩的投票结果。

GPO调查显示，47%的选民将投赞成票，赞成紧缩，而投反对票的一方为43%，调查人数为1000，误差为3.1%。

政权更替
华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员齐克果(Jacob Kirkegaard)表示，自从宣布召开公投以来，民意测验结果的变化，已使得欧元区其它国家都认为希腊将发生政权更替。

据德国官员表示，希腊要进行政权更替来获得债权人信任并加速谈判进程，但如果仅仅这样还是不够的。

在希腊无法支付国际货币基金组织(IMF)欠款两天之后，全球银行表示，希腊在接下来三年里得到欧元区至少需要360亿欧元(约合400亿美元)的援助以及更宽松的条款才能让其有能力持续还债。

希腊政府发言萨科拉里季斯(Gabriel Sakellaridis)在邮件中称，IMF的报告是对希腊救助协议失败的忏悔。

谈判双方还保持联系，但是几个月下来希腊政府的各种矛盾信号让德国总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)对齐普拉斯的意图也是一头雾水。

错误的赌博
官员表示，如果齐普拉斯打算进行公投，然后从谈判中撤出，以此来赢得债权人的让步的话，那么他的算盘就完全打错了。

现在的问题变成了作为欧盟创始成员国，德国是有准备放任希腊离开欧盟。默克尔表示在公投之后随时可以进行谈判，她指出希腊不再能够威胁欧洲的未来。她周三表示，我们可以静待希腊援助的要求，要克服欧洲主权债务危机需要时间和耐心。

时间宝贵
希腊现在实行资本管制，并且限定没人每天只能从ATM机取60欧元，希腊目前的流动性储备可能仅够维持到下周一。而希腊人民排着长龙领取削减的养老金的场面，更让大家心生绝望。

齐普拉斯在网络上表示，那些苦苦挣扎排着长队从ATM机取钱的人知道我们正在为他们争取一个可行的，合理的解决方案。

Greek Drama Won’t End With Vote as Polls Indicate a Tight Race

Germany and the rest of the euro region are bracing for more Greek political upheaval followed by tortuous negotiations even if the country votes for more austerity in Sunday’s referendum.
There is no quick fix to the crisis because European Union rules make negotiations on financial aid difficult to re-start, according to an official in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. Adding to the murky landscape are polls showing the outcome of Sunday’s referendum on austerity too close to call.
From Berlin to Brussels, policy makers are studying scenarios that suggest the ballot is only another chapter in a prolonged saga rather than the endgame. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is campaigning for citizens to vote ’no,’ while the rest of the 19-nation bloc says a clear ’yes’ can get Greece back on the path to reform.
“We desperately want to stay in the euro,” said Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We are going to win on Sunday.”
If they don’t, Tsipras said he’ll respect the people’s will and fly to Brussels the day after to sign a deal while his 54-year-old finance chief said he’d rather cut off an arm than capitulate to an accord that fails to restructure Greece’s debt.
A GPO poll cited by euro2day.gr said 47 percent leaned toward a “yes” vote, an endorsement of austerity and the international bailout. The “no” camp, the government’s position rejecting those terms, was 43 percent. The margin of error in the survey of 1,000 people was 3.1 percentage points.
Regime Change
“The bizarre twists of events since the referendum was called has clearly caused the rest of the euro area to now seek regime change in Athens,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at Peterson Institute in Washington.
A change of guard in Athens to restore lost trust would probably speed up the process, according to several German officials and lawmakers. That alone, won’t be enough.
Two days after Greece missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund, the Washington-based global lender of last resort said the country needs at least another 36 billion euros ($40 billion) from the euro region over the next three years and easier terms to make the debt sustainable.
The IMF report is “a confession of the failure of bailout,” Greek government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis said in e-mail.
While communications haven’t broken down, months of conflicting signals by Greece’s government have left the German chancellery unsure of Tsipras’s intentions, according to an official involved in policy making in Berlin.
Wrong Gamble
If Tsipras called the plebiscite and walked away from aid talks with the aim of winning more concessions from Greece’s creditors, he miscalculated, the official said.
The question becomes whether Germany, as a founding member of the EU and the biggest contributor to Greece’s bailout, is prepared to see Greece go. While Merkel is leaving the door open to talks after the referendum, she says Greece no longer poses a threat to Europe’s future.
“We can calmly wait” for any Greek aid request, she said in a speech to parliament Wednesday. “Overcoming Europe’s sovereign debt crisis requires time and staying power.”
Time is a luxury Greece doesn’t have.
With the country under capital controls and depositors barred from withdrawing more than 60 euros ($67) a day from ATMs, liquidity reserves will probably only last until Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.
Scenes of the long lines of pensioners collecting reduced retirement benefits capture the sense of despair.
“The people who are struggling, standing in queues at banks & ATMs, know that we’re fighting for a viable and dignified solution,” Tsipras posted on Twitter.