春节影响无法改变就业持续低增长，韩国最快4月降息

汇通财经APP讯——

业内分析师周三(2月11日)表示，即将到来的春节假期将会在一定程度上提振韩国2月的就业数据，但这不足以对经济有全面的提振作用，因此，韩国央行仍有可能在今年二季度时降息以提振经济。

韩国今年的春节假期从2月18-20日。韩国周三发布的1月份就业数据继续增长，HI投资证券公司分析师Lee Seung-joon表示，新年假期对就业增长有积极影响，因为零售和运输服务方面的用工需求会大幅增长。

韩国1月经季调后失业率从去年12月的3.5%下降至3.4%。韩国1月新增就业同比增加34.7万人，去年12月同比增加42.2万人。


但是野村的经济学家Kwon Young-sun认为，韩国1月就业增长放缓使韩国央行下调了通胀预期，并且施压央行宣布降息以提振经济。

韩国发布1月就业数据后，野村证券称韩国公司业绩不佳导致就业增长缓慢。薪酬增幅缓慢以及就业增速放缓都增加了今年韩国通胀预期下、行的风险。

野村证券维持观点认为韩国央行会在4月下调利率25个基点至1.75%，并在7月进一步下调利率至1.5%。




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